Seizing the Syrian Opportunity
A Path to Regional Stability and Alliances
The shifting dynamics in Syria present the United States and its allies with a rare opportunity to recalibrate the Middle East’s geopolitics. The fall of the Assad regime, the fragmentation of power, and shifting alliances among regional actors create a critical moment for intervention. By taking strategic and diplomatic steps to foster peace between Turkey and the Kurds, integrate Syria into the Abraham Accords, repatriate Syrian refugees, and gut Iranian influence in the region, the U.S. can foster long-term stability and secure its role as a key global power broker. This paper outlines a comprehensive strategy for achieving these objectives.
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Brokering Peace Between Turkey and the Kurds
The Kurdish question has long been a source of tension in Syria and the broader region. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been vital U.S. partners in the fight against ISIS, yet their ties to the PKK, a group Turkey considers a terrorist organization, have strained U.S.-Turkey relations. The collapse of the Assad regime provides a window for resolving this conflict.
Key Steps:
1. Negotiated Autonomy: The U.S. can broker a deal where Kurdish groups renounce ties to the PKK in exchange for internationally-recognized autonomy within Syria. This arrangement would alleviate Turkish security concerns and ensure Kurdish self-governance.
2. Demilitarized Buffer Zones: Establishing demilitarized zones along the Turkish-Syrian border can create a sense of security for Turkey while safeguarding Kurdish territories.
3. Economic and Security Partnerships: Turkey can be incentivized to cooperate through economic aid packages and assurances of U.S. military support in counterterrorism operations.
Outcome: A peace deal would stabilize northern Syria, prevent future Turkish incursions, and secure the Kurdish regions as a reliable partner for the U.S., paving the way for greater American influence in the region.
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Integrating Syria into the Abraham Accords
The Abraham Accords have already transformed the Middle East, fostering unprecedented cooperation between Israel and several Arab nations. Syria’s inclusion would further solidify this framework, promoting regional peace and economic integration.
Strategic Importance:
Reconstruction Funding: Gulf nations, incentivized by the U.S., could fund Syria’s reconstruction in exchange for normalization with Israel.
Economic Benefits: Opening trade between Syria and Israel could catalyze regional economic growth, benefiting Syrian citizens and reducing reliance on Iranian support.
Geopolitical Stability: Normalized relations with Israel would disrupt Iran’s “axis of resistance,” weakening Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies.
Challenges and Solutions:
Gaining Syrian buy-in will require addressing deep-seated animosities toward Israel. U.S. diplomatic engagement, backed by economic incentives, will be crucial in persuading Syrian authorities and opposition groups to embrace normalization.
Outcome: Integrating Syria into the Abraham Accords would foster broader regional cooperation, diminish conflict, and isolate Iran’s influence in the Middle East.
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Repatriating Syrian Refugees
The Syrian refugee crisis has placed immense pressure on Europe, fueling political tensions and economic challenges. A coordinated effort to repatriate refugees would address these issues while aiding Syria’s reconstruction.
Key Steps:
1. Safe Zones: Establishing internationally-monitored safe zones in Syria would ensure returning refugees can rebuild their lives securely.
2. European Support: In exchange for alleviating migration pressures, European nations could provide aid and trade agreements to support Syria’s recovery.
3. Voluntary Repatriation: Partnering with the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and other organizations would ensure the repatriation process is humane and voluntary.
Outcome: Repatriating refugees would reduce tensions in Europe, contribute to Syria’s economic recovery, and foster goodwill between the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East.
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Diminishing Iranian Influence
Iran’s influence in Syria has been a cornerstone of its regional strategy, enabling it to supply Hezbollah and project power through the Shia Crescent. The power vacuum in Syria creates an opportunity to dismantle these networks.
Strategic Actions:
1. Support Anti-Iranian Syrian Factions: Backing Syrian groups opposed to Iranian influence would undermine Tehran’s foothold in the region.
2. Cutting Hezbollah’s Supply Lines: Disrupting the flow of weapons and resources from Iran through Syria would weaken Hezbollah’s operational capacity.
3. Economic Isolation: Intensifying sanctions on Iran and targeting its financial networks in Syria would further constrain its activities.
Outcome: Severing Iran’s influence in Syria would not only diminish its power but also reassure U.S. allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia, strengthening regional security.
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Leveraging European Partnerships
European nations, deeply affected by the Syrian conflict, have a vested interest in resolving the crisis. The U.S. can leverage this interest to build stronger transatlantic alliances.
Proposals:
Trade Agreements: Encourage European nations to engage in trade with Syria, particularly in agriculture and construction, to stimulate economic recovery.
Reconstruction Aid: Coordinate European funding for rebuilding critical infrastructure in Syria, ensuring stability and reducing migration pressures.
Shared Security Goals: Align U.S. and European policies on counterterrorism and refugee management, creating a unified approach to Syria’s challenges.
Outcome: Strengthened U.S.-European cooperation on Syria would enhance transatlantic relations, promote stability, and reduce the likelihood of future conflicts.
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Creating a New Regional Order
The proposed strategies—brokering peace between Turkey and the Kurds, integrating Syria into the Abraham Accords, repatriating refugees, and isolating Iran—would collectively reshape the Middle East. The U.S. would emerge as a key architect of a new regional order, characterized by stability, cooperation, and diminished adversarial influence.
Broader Implications:
1. Economic Growth: Reconstruction efforts and new trade routes would boost regional economies, benefiting Syria and its neighbors.
2. Security: A stable Syria would limit the resurgence of extremist groups like ISIS, ensuring long-term peace.
3. Geopolitical Influence: By leading these initiatives, the U.S. would reassert its role as a global leader, countering Russian and Chinese ambitions in the region.
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Conclusion
The current moment in Syria’s history is one of both crisis and opportunity. By acting decisively, the U.S. can foster peace, stability, and prosperity in a region that has long been plagued by conflict. Brokering peace between Turkey and the Kurds, integrating Syria into the Abraham Accords, facilitating the repatriation of refugees, and cutting Iranian influence are achievable goals that would yield profound benefits. These efforts would not only stabilize Syria but also strengthen U.S. alliances, promote regional security, and reinforce America’s role as a force for peace and progress. The time to act is now.
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References
Assad's Downfall Marks a New Realignment in the Middle East. (2024, December 9). The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/assads-downfall-marks-a-new-realignment-in-the-middle-east-ed9cb441
Assad's 24-year regime toppling 'like a house of cards' marks the end of Iran's ring of fire around Israel, expert says. (2024, December 9). The Sun. Retrieved from https://www.thesun.ie/news/14329953/assad-regime-fell-house-of-cards-syria-iran/
The west should not succumb to cynical regret over Syria. (2024, December 10). Financial Times. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/4e6f6a6d-9e2d-43c2-87db-277f67796664
Daring Aub. (2024). Quick Hits on Syria: A Primer. Substack. Retrieved from https://open.substack.com/pub/daringaub/p/quick-hits-on-syria-a-primer